Beyond the Ballot: Condition of the Election
“Beyond the Ballot” is a column presented and created by the PHHS Politics Club. This column will explore electoral information, congressional controversies, and senatorial stories! Stay tuned for biweekly updates from your brand-new news source. This first edition of BTB for the 2024-25 school year will cover information on the state of affairs for the election.
There are decades in which weeks happen, and there are weeks when decades happen. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, there has seemingly been no greater example of this adage than the summer of 2024: when an unforeseen tragedy occurred for the democratic party after the Presidential Debate; two attempts on the non-incumbent president’s life occurred for the first time in over a century; and the greatest political coup of the modern era struck Joe Biden out of the candidacy. There’s much more to unpack in all of this, and we’ll be looking at a multitude of perspectives and ideas relating to these issues. Now, we discuss the consequences of the big Sept. 10 debate on ABC.
Because there’s so much to consider, I will strive to keep this version relatively short, unless I feel that one issue is majorly critical. There’s a lot to cover, so hold onto your hats!
The BBRecap of the last edition from May 2024 predicted that Trump would have an infinitely easy time following a potential victory in the June debate against sitting President Joe Biden. For the most part, this reigned true with Trump pulling ahead in all national polls. Additionally, on July 13th, a true attack on the stability of the election and nation came as former President Trump suffered a minor ear injury due to an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Via a stroke of luck, the shooter was only able to hit the former president in his right ear; however, the bullets that went astray struck and injured many others, eventually killing American Firefighter Corey Comperatore.
Following this event, the polls once again shot up in Trump’s favor – he seemed destined to win. Democrats were uneasy about the ailing sitting president’s reelection chances and at its worst, Donald Trump gained a 15-point lead in favorability.
Furthermore, the blowback on the legacy news & media due to the Biden health scandal and the euphemizing of the assassination attempt only helped power up Trump’s campaign. As the Republican National Convention (RNC) saw Senator of Ohio and author J.D. Vance take the stage on July 15th, the election seemed as if it was sealed.
On July 21st, the incumbent, Joe Biden, dropped out of the race, citing that he needed to focus on his “presidential duties.” A tweet around midday, July 21st instantly became one of the most important Sundays in 2024. Biden, who had been spouting that he would stay in the race just two days before, seemed to have caved to the pressures being put on by the embarrassingly low voter enthusiasm rates that characterized the weeks following the debate. Here, he indirectly pushed his Vice-President Kamala Harris into the limelight by explicitly stating her name in his dropout letter. This genius move on the democratic side to preserve campaign funding and spur voter enthusiasm worked like a charm.
On August 5th, Harris, despite not winning a single primary vote, was elevated to the Democratic Candidacy. The Republican aisle called blasphemy, citing democratic process issues – the people of America had no say on this appointment, they claimed. Regardless of such issues, the shameful polling of the last few months was replaced by a surge in support for Harris. This so-called “honeymoon phase” (a phrase describing the months following a new politician entering a race) has been riding high and has been consistently raising millions more dollars than the opposition’s campaign. Critics have stated that the Democratic aisle is simply glad that Vice President Harris “isn’t Biden,” and that they believe that Harris herself doesn’t carry many virtues.
Despite such criticisms, Harris continues to be neck-and-neck with Trump in national polling averages. This dead-heat election status, however, has not prevented serious doubts regarding the new democratic candidate arising from the voting populace. Independent voters are especially unsure of her policies, which were viewed as extremely radical in 2019. Matters such as all-encompassing abortion and banning fracking were particularly contentious when it came to passionate pro-life/pro-choicers and Pennsylvanians (where fracking/oil is a big industry). Additionally, harsh criticism has been levied against her left-wing high-tax and high-spending policies, notably a 25% unrealized capital gains tax. However, with her official policy positions being out post-debate, some of these questioning independents have begun to separate. Harris’s most convincing points seem to be abortion, civil rights, and expanding social services.
Trump, once again, is back and is running a campaign. That’s the best way to describe it – a campaign. It has had success and failures, and it has had failures and successes: it’s been truly an enigma of a campaign. He has the upper hand when it comes to substance and actual issues but manages to not be disciplined enough to implement those substantive topics into his rhetoric. For immigration, his strongest topic, he managed to lose credibility on a real, serious issue by making an outlandish claim that took attention away from the underlying problem. The now-infamous “cats and dogs” quotation about Springfield has obscured the problems inherent in introducing 20,000 aliens into a town of 60,000. In short, Trump has not changed too much from what the nation saw just months ago – he will take the most absurd, “viral” example and use that as his argument.
Despite this, the very nature of this race favors Trump, as he has established himself over the last eight years in public life. If Trump’s issues are a ‘pile of garbage’, adding more ‘garbage’ doesn’t add to the fact that it’s still ‘garbage’; essentially, what made Trump so appealing four and eight years ago still applies today, and these missteps and character flaws are all a part of that.
Truly, the greatest question in modern American politics is how Trump captured the hearts of millions upon millions of Americans. In this race, Trump’s most convincing points seem to be opposition advantages (he can point to the last four years of the Biden-Harris administration), immigration, foreign policy (Afghanistan), and the economy.
The current status quo and structure of this election should (theoretically, and to Trump’s advantage) be a referendum on the last three years of the Biden-Harris administration on issues such as foreign policy, the economy/quality of life, and immigration. As the opposition party running against an incumbent, Trump has the advantage as he should be able to leverage the record of his opponents.
After all, despite attempts to block such rhetoric, Harris occupied the second most powerful position in the Executive Branch and perhaps the world. She, therefore, is directly accountable for her actions whilst in office. It’s no secret that the cost of living and the price index have jumped in the past few years, so the Trump campaign should ideally focus on this. Whether this will happen or not is yet to be seen, but with the general election being just a month away, the Trump administration is cutting it close on its more aggressive messaging.
The ABC Presidential Debate on Sept. 10, 2024, was as uneventful as June when it came to quality. Both sides spewed lies profusely, with Trump’s aforementioned example being the best example. On a rhetorical basis, it is hard to deny that Harris won – she managed to crawl under Trump’s skin and get him off of his “A-Game.” Despite her supposed victory, she did not effectively communicate to voters her actual positions and she deflected questions (a norm for politicians from the dawn of time).
Most notably, when asked about how she would support middle-class Americans, Harris went on a tangent about how she understands middle-class Americans, as she was one in her youth. This is questionable due to her parents being privileged professors from Berkeley and Stanford. Trump, on the other hand, made statements about Virginia aborting babies “after birth,” which is mischaracterizing a quote by the governor of Virginia. Harris claimed that Trump said there would be a “bloodbath” if he lost – he was actually referring to the auto industry.
Harris also claimed that Trump called White Supremacists “fine people” in Charlottesville, Virginia – he was referring to a debate about historical monuments. The difference inherent in these lies is that Trump attacks a real issue like a balloon: he inflates it all the way, watches it pop, and then keeps on blowing air into nothing. Harris, on the other hand, seems to be focused on the rhetoric of Trump and his “off-putting” personality: unfortunately, this messaging seems to be off-putting to white Americans and men.
The debate concludes that we learned, hyperbolically, nothing from both sides. An erratic Trump is still Trump. Harris is, to the common voter, still a new candidate that we know little about. The polls have barely shifted and show that this race still seems to be a dead heat at least for the popular vote. Pollsters like Nate Silver favor Trump in winning the electoral college, but even then it’s only by a few points at best. And given what’s occurred in the last three months, who knows what’s going to happen next?
BBRecap™
Of course, what’s been covered here isn’t all that has happened. Covering three months of pre-election events is simply impossible in this format, and is too much for one person – let alone a high schooler – to do. And there’s too much to address as well: the Fed rate cut, another assassination attempt, and interviews from both sides.
When it comes down to this election, neither side seems to be satisfactory to most Americans, who, despite their biases, agree that the nation seems to be worse off candidate-wise.
Harris’s main attacks consist of identity politics, regarding both herself and Trump, without being substantive on policy or her last few years. Trump’s main attacks consist of immigration and foreign policy, without being substantive in methodology.
Anyway, I think most Americans agree that we as a people are losing, regardless of who wins.
Sources:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/polls-show-11-days-biden-trump-debate-rcna160757
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/22/biden-social-media-post-drop-out
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/big-lies-debate
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/09/19/fact-check-kamala-harris-debate-donald-trump/
